Forever is composed of nows

The big schlacta sat with his hands on his knees, his back ramrod straight, looking Gerard straight in the eyes with an intensity that made the Imperial Auditor of the Imperial Treasury uncomfortable. La Salle always did his best not to let his dislike of the old campaigner colour his judgement, but Mladen did not make it easy.

"So you're prepared to come back for 'one last job'? Again?" Gerard's sarcasm was clearly lost on the Varushkan.

"Yes. The Empire is threatened on all sides by enemies and it is more important than ever that we do not leave anything in the pantry that could be on the table with the picklebread."

Gerard sighed inwardly. Leontes was bad enough, with all those Marcher proverbs that he was pretty sure were made up on the spot. Mladen was another of the same ilk. They only did it to annoy him, he was reasonably certain.

"What kind of support will you need," asked Gerard glancing down at the ledgers piled to either side of him. Whenever he finished collating and summarizing the Imperial accounts for one summit, it was immediately time to start again.

Mladen stiffened, which was an impressive feat for a man who was generally as flexible as cast iron and weathered oak.

"Don't worry, it won't cost you any money" he spat, bitterly. Gerard made a noise halfway between exasperation and irritation.

"That's not what I..." he began but Mladen interrupted his senior colleague.

"The problem with your office is that you understand only the cost of things, not their worth." Mladen has expressed these sentiments before. "When you consider costs at all! Half the prognosticators you have today seem to see it as a virtue to discount the straightforward in favour of the baroque! Spurn the traditional in favour of the novel! And where does it get us? The Senate expressing real concerns about the collapse of the economy is where it gets us!"

"Mladen, we have had this conversation before and..."

"All I am offering to do is to come out of retirement one last time to clean up the mess created by an approach to appraisal that relies so heavily on coming up with new ways to do things that almost before the work is presented it is out of date! And you start talking about budgets and money and what it will cost your office!"

"That is very much not what I said and..." Gerard took a breath and calmed himself. This was why he had been happy to see the back of Mladen and why he privately wished the man would just stay retired. It wasn't that the Varushkan was a bad man - around other members of the civil service he was civil and constructive, and he'd given good service in his day. He just didn't like Gerard, any more than the Auditor liked him. So any conversation always ended in an argument about budgets. They could barely exchange a "good morning" when passing in the hall without reigniting a bitter disagreement about a proposal from fifteen years ago.

"Look," said Gerard in a conciliatory tone. "You suggested working with the Imperial Master of Works and that's an excellent idea. It's a good initiative, and in most cases the work has already been done. You're just going to revisit things and check that they will still work. It'll be for the general good, and while budgets are tight at the moment it won't add any extra costs. I'll just record you as part of the Master's staff."

Mladen looked pleased, and stood - a complicated motion that involved a lot of creaking and sharp intakes of breath. "I'll get started then," he said in a tone that indicated he felt he had won a victory over the hated accountant. "And I'll do my best to ensure any work is budget neutral."

He clearly considered that parting shot to be some sort of stinging rebuke, but Gerard took it at face value, nodded, and smiled as the Varushkan left his office. He did like things that were budget neutral, after all.

Gerard La Salle, Auditor of the Imperial Treasury, oversees the Prognosticators Office.

Overview

One of the powerful tools available to the Senate is the ability to commission an appraisal. The Prognosticator's Office works with the rest of the civil service, and with Imperial citizens, foreign representatives, and even heralds of the eternal realms to try and find solutions to problems plaguing the Empire. Once the investigation is complete, they present opportunities to overcome obstacles, achieve ambitious goals, or improve the prosperity of the Empire.

There are limits to what the civil service can achieve however, and competition for the resources of the Prognosticator's Office is often fierce. There are only a handful of Prognosticators at a time, and in recent months they have become a little stretched with retirements, in-depth long-term projects, and at least one sabbatical/disappearance. With that in mind, several opportunities have been discussed related to the department of the civil service responsible for establishing, evaluating, and presenting opportunities.

The Mladen Initiative

Fortifications protect both Imperial borders and the heartland of the Empire, and there are regular opportunities to build new ones or strengthen existing bastions.

• Retired prognosticator Mladen Escovitch offers to work with the Imperial Master of Works to review opportunities related to fortifications
• The opportunity makes use of their existing ability to prepare an announcement for the Senate
• It is available only during the Winter Solstice
• The title of Imperial Master of Works is currently vacant

Over the years there has been a lot of work done designing plans for fortifications in all corners of the Empire. Many of those designs were based on now outmoded approaches to the castle-building sciences. While the more recent opportunities are easily revisited, there are dusty plans stretching back years that are now effectively obsolete. Some came from exotic sources such as eternals, while others were put together based on specific situations that are now either moot or no longer current. In theory it should be possible to recreate some of those opportunities in light of the new developments but doing so is likely to be "a pain in the arse" to be indelicate.

The Prognosticator's Office has been very cautious. There is no way, they say, to look at every castle-building opportunity as part of a single appraisal. There's no reason new appraisals regarding the defence of a particular territory or nation might not be raised by the Imperial senate, and they would obviously look at earlier opportunities as part of their work. But simply going back and looking over every opportunity is unfeasible.

Enter Mladen Escovitch, "retired" prognosticator. Since leaving full-time service in the Prognosticators Office he has done a little "freelance" work, including the recent appraisal regarding the vulnerabilities of the Druj military. The old campaigner has offered to come out of retirement again to do "one last job" - in this case to go over existing opportunities to create fortifications and update them. Or, more specifically, he's prepared to work with the Imperial Master of Works in this matter. They already have the ability to make an announcement to the Senate regarding the repair and improvement of fortifications. Mladen proposes they use this power to select three existing opportunities that involve building a new fortification, or improving an existing one. At the Spring Equinox, Mladen will present his findings as to how the Empire can take advantage of those opportunities despite recent changes.

Mladen is not a patient man; should the Imperial Master of Works wish to take advantage of his offer, they will need to do so during the Winter Solstice. Awkwardly, the position of Imperial Master of Works is currently vacant, so the Military Council will need to appoint someone to the role if they wish to see previous opportunities for fortifications revisited.

The La Salle Stratagem

• Gerard La Salle plans to employ an additional prognosticator while Eilian Sweetwater is indisposed
• There will be an administrative motion on Saturday afternoon for the Senate to choose which candidate they want to recruit

At the moment there are three prognosticators with experience and resources to perform an appraisal for the Senate. Technically there is also Eilian Sweetwater, but he has been granted a leave of absence to investigate historical lighthouses... and before he could get very far with that he and his companions went missing in Redoubt. They may be prisoners of the Grendel, or they might be in the hands of a Winter eternal or... well anything really. Such is the life of a prognosticator.

The recent appraisal concerning ministries commissioned during the Summer Solstice has seen Graciana i Lòpez i Guerra caught up in an intensive and detailed assessment of the various ministries. For the last six months, then, the weight of the entire Prognosticator's Office has fallen on the shoulders of Naomi of Virtue's Rest and Lutomysla Niegoslava. They have managed the workload well enough, but some cracks are showing here and there.

With that in mind, the Imperial Auditor proposes to hire someone to work in the Prognosticator's Office until Eilian Sweetwater returns to active duty. He has short-listed three possible candidates for the Senate to consider. La Salle's office has prepared a short dossier introducing each individual and covering their strengths and weaknesses. The Imperial Auditor is quick to reassure the Senate that there will be no increase to the costs of running the Prognosticator's Office - while Eilian is on sabbatical.

At the Saturday afternoon Senate session, an administrative motion will be raised to allow the Senate to decide which expert they deem the most useful. If the Senate selects one of the candidates, they will be able to deploy them during the Winter Solstice if they wish.

Candidates

Lisane de Terresford

• Lisane is an ideal prognosticator to look for virtuous solutions to problems
• She will not pursue avenues she considers to be fundamentally unvirtuous

The Terres is a narrow river that runs through Semmerholm, and House Terresford is a relatively minor noble house that looks after the ford. They are not an especially old house - dating back to the time of Emperor Hugh - but they have a reputation among the yeofolk for being even-handed and loyal. Lisane de Terresford is currently earl of the house, but has been looking for a successor for some time. Earlier this year, she found one, and is now preparing to retire and spend her time "keeping bees". Gerard La Salle plans, with Senate approval, to approach her with an eye toward joining the Prognosticator's Office on a temporary basis.

Before becoming earl, Lisane visited Anvil many times and was intimately involved with the doings of the Synod. She was known for her Wisdom, and for her commitment to asking questions rather than taking easy answers. Gerard believes that she will add a much needed spiritual perspective to the business of the Prognosticators, being an ideal appraiser to look for specifically virtuous solutions to the problems the Senate raises. If she has a weakness it is that she will not pursue avenues she considers to be fundamentally unvirtuous, even if they might present an easier or cheaper opportunity.

Rosemary Stockland

• Rosemary is an ideal prognosticator to look for mercantile solutions to problems
• She will pursue opportunities that involve trades in which all parties gain

Stockland is a region of Upwold well known for its fair and for its sheep and cattle markets. For the last twenty years Rosemary Stockland has served as an alder of the town, maintaining the peace and dealing with arguments between merchants from many parts of the Empire. A former Bailiff of the Grand Market, she is known for plain speaking, and cutting to the heart of any problem. She's also renowned for her patience - while she may not suffer fools gladly she still does her best to get to the bottom of what it is they are after. It's been three decades since she was last at Anvil, but reports say she still keeps an eye on the doings at the centre of the Empire, especially with regards to the Bourse. Indeed, she was heavily involved with the cow bonds issued earlier this year, during Spring cattle drives, helping ensure that the scheme went off without any obvious hitches.

If Gerard approaches her to come and work with the Prognosticator's Office, he's sure she will agree. As a merchant, and more importantly perhaps a manager of merchants, she has contacts across the Empire. She's also interested in the idea of prosperity as a right of every Imperial citizen, and would be an excellent choice for any appraisal that focuses on improving the quality of life of Imperial citizens, establishing trade routes, or sorting out diplomatic snarls related to mercantile matters. If she has a weakness it is that solutions she provides are likely to based on mercantile arrangements that reward all parties.

Vainakoma Dawnstongue

• Vainakoma is an ideal prognosticator to look for solutions to military problems
• She will pursue opportunities that involve employing Imperial armies in novel ways

A Suaq born and raised in Hahnmark, Vainakoma cut her teeth as a soldier in the Green Shield, serving with distinction through the reign of Emperor Walter and Empress Britta. She retired from active duty after the loss of the Young Empress. Most recently she helped with the mustering and training of the Narwhal's Spear, but ultimately declined to take up the military life again. La Salle describes her as a woman who is always looking for something to throw herself in to, and one who absolutely relishes a challenge. She combines the mind of an expert logistician with the instincts of a canny hunter.

Vainakoma has a great deal of experience in the Imperial military and a deep familiarity with the unique talents of the Empire's armies. She would be an excellent choice for an appraisal that involved novel military problems or strategic challenges - but her solutions are likely to require the use of Imperial armies to achieve the goals.

Budget Matters

• The Imperial Senate could instruct Gerard to take on all three prognosticators on a permanent basis
• Doing so would increase the upkeep costs of the Prognosticators office by 6 thrones a season
• Additional prognosticators would give the Senate more options to choose between - it would not allow for more appraisals

Gerard can afford the temporary secondment of one of these three, but candidly would prefer to bring all of them into the Civil Service. The wider the range of prognosticators, he says, the more options the Senate has and the less strain is placed on the individual civil servants - who often have to spend months at a time in the field in often quite stressful situations. Temporary secondment would allow one of the three to join the office for as long as Eilian Sweetwater is on sabbatical, and they would retire once the Navarr historian returned to active duty (assuming he survives the apparently dangerous matter of looking at lighthouse ruins).

The Senate could choose to instruct Gerard to approach all three candidates, to offer each of them a permanent position with the Prognosticators Office. If this were done, Gerard would be able to retain all three potential recruits even when Eilian returns to work. The downside is that it would increase the upkeep of the prognosticators office by 6 thrones - the money would cover both the expenses for the prognosticators and for a larger staff of dedicated civil servants supporting them. Hiring additional prognosticators would not give the Senate the ability to conduct more appraisals, but it would mean that they had more options to choose between.

Tristan Ramson von Holberg, Master of the Imperial Mint

Opportunity Knocks Again

• If the Senate increases the Prognosticator's budget then there is an additional opportunity to expand the powers of the Master of the Mint
• The civil service will raise an administrative motion to amend the Master of the Mint to give them the power to review a previous appraisal or opportunity
• The Senate could use a Senate motion to grant this power to a different Senate position
• The current Master of the Imperial Mint is Tristan Ramson von Holberg

There is another opportunity here as well. If the office were expanded, there would be more prognosticators not involved in appraisals as well as more staff available. Taking inspiration from Mladen's offer regarding fortifications, Gerard has another proposal for the Senate to consider. The Master of the Imperial Mint could be given the power to commission a kind of "mini appraisal". Rather than addressing a new problem, the office would look at a previous opportunity offered to the Empire, and assess whether it was still accessible, or under what conditions it might be made so.

This would result in an entry in the winds of fortune looking at a single opportunity - such as a commission from an earlier wind of fortune - that is no longer available. The civil service would determine how to "refresh" that opportunity. For opportunities arising from within the Empire they might be able to simply prepare a new proposal or confirm that the old proposal is still practical. For those coming from eternals or foreign nations they will at least be able to point out a reasonable path to approach the matter.

If the Senate instruct Gerard to expand his team and increase the upkeep of the office accordingly, then the civil service will raise an administrative motion at the next session to amend the title of Master of the Mint to give them the power to select a single opportunity to reassess. After some discussion among the Constitutional Court, advice is given that while Gerard has selected the Master of the Imperial Mint as the obvious candidate to receive this power it could instead be given to any Member of the Senate in good standing - including the Throne, Conscience of the Senate, Imperial Magus, Advisor on Orc Affairs, or Imperial Consul. A Senator would need to raise a Senate motion to name the title whose powers they wish to amend if they prefer to select a different office to receive the power.

There is nothing to stop the Senate keeping the power for themselves - they would determine which opportunity to revisit via a Senate motion. What they can't do is give a senator the ability to make an announcement to use the power in that way - the method for Senators to wield political power is via Senate motion.

OOC Note
One of the challenges of a game like Empire, that has been running for over a decade with multiple winds of fortune every event, is keeping track of opportunities offered. Sometimes the actual rules of the game change in a way that means an earlier opportunity is no longer available, as with the recent changes to the fortification rules or details of how the vallorn may be fought. Other times, the situation has changed significantly - the opportunity to fortify Sarcombe being presented before two years of war saw the town conquered and liberated. At the moment the only way to check in on an opportunity is to e-mail Profound Decisions which is ultimately unsatisfactory, not least because the outcome is likely to be either a binary "yes" or "no". Many other opportunities are designed with a one-year "sunset clause" that means they are no longer available after a certain point even though there is not always a narrative reason they should not be.

The idea of this power is that, if the Senate wishes, they can "refresh" an existing opportunity without needing to commission an entire new appraisal. It's not possible to ask for a "refresh" on an entire wind of fortune, but pointing to a specific opportunity - such as the "Third Pie" in Mournwold or the opportunity to establish a certain trade route - allows us to review that opportunity quickly and come up with an in-character answer that is then available to everyone. As with an appraisal our intention is that, wherever possible, we'll provide something constructive in response to this request to refresh an opportunity - and if for whatever reason it's not possible to do that due to changes in the game or its rules we will provide some direction as to how something similar might be achieved.

The Imperial Apothecaries Guild.

The Magpies.

The Sun Chamber.

The Vallornguard.

The Abraham Gambit

• The Throne can use an announcement in the Senate to instruct the civil service to appraise the constitutional implications of a new sodality
• This appraisal will not count against the limit of the Empire's appraisals
• The power is available for the next year

Creating an Imperial Sodality is a significant undertaking for the Senate, in that each has a potential to greatly change the political landscape of the Empire. It is a Constitutional vote, and one that requires ratification by a Throne. Creation of an Imperial Sodality is often controversial however. The Senate is arguably reticent to create sodalities due to uncertainty about what a new organisation might portend - as seen recently with the constitutional implications of the Magpies, Vallornguard and Imperial Apothecaries Guild.

There is nothing to stop the Senate from instructing the Prognosticator's Office to undertake an appraisal into the implications of a new sodality, were it to be created, but they can only commission two such investigations each season and there are always other demands on this limited resource. Since the Autumn Equinox, the Constitutional Court has been discussing this situation and have hit upon a potential solution. The Throne's ratification is a required element of any Imperial Sodality, so it is the opinion of Magistrate Abraham that the civil service should offer them what assistance they can in determining whether to recognise new bodies.

Starting with the Winter Solstice, Abraham (a constitutional scholar) and Leontes the Scribe (the Imperial Archivist and an expert at navigating the libraries of the Empire), will divert some of their attention to the matter of a sodality. Each season for the next year, the Throne can make a Senate announcement instructing Abraham and Leontes to look into the potential implications of a single new Imperial Sodality. The only requirement is that the proposed sodality must have a name, a symbol, and a clear manifesto in the style of those expressed by any Conclave order. This manifesto must consist of three concise claims that the sodality believes to be true followed by three clear statements expressing what the sodality exists to do. In addition they must have a symbol that will be used to represent the sodality.

The Throne needn't recite the entire manifesto as part of their announcement, but one must be submitted in writing to the Constitutional Court shortly after the end of the summit (OOC Note: Emailed by the Throne to plot@profounddecisions.co.uk before downtime closes following the event). The manifesto must be complete and precise. The job of the civil service is made infinitely harder if they need to speculate over what a particular element of a manifesto might mean. It must also be precise in that it is the actual wording that will make up the Sodality manifesto, rather than a list of alternative or possible manifesto items.

Abraham and Leontes will work with other civil servants to examine the manifesto and lay out the implications of what an Imperial Sodality based on it would look like. They might propose amendments to the manifesto that would have different effects, or confirm potential benefits and pitfalls that will arise if the Sodality is created. This will take the form of an appraisal which will be released to the Empire before the next summit.

The two Court members are prepared to commit to make the facility available for the next year. Whether the civil service have the capacity to support the arrangements beyond that point is a matter of disagreement between Leontes and Abraham. The former publicly opines that there's no reason they shouldn't be able to keep doing it after that point if it proves useful to the Throne. "After all," he says gloomily "we'd probably have to do the work anyway it's just a matter of when we have to do it. And at least this way the Senate can see what they are buying before they get their sack home and discover it's full of rats." Abraham seems more circumspect, at least for now, arguing that the civil service can't offer the support indefinitely until they know how much work it takes. The ageing magistrate seems to have gotten his way, at least for now.

OOC Note: If you want to send a letter to the Emperor about your sodality, they're happy to receive them but please send it to Vesna.Borkovna.Prochnost@gmail.com rather than direct messaging. It's also important to remember that Vesna is a player character, and has a very busy real life job as well as being the Imperial Throne.

Design Note
As should have become clear, the creation of an Imperial Sodality is a significant step. Each one has constitutional implications, and cannot help but reflect a shifting of power from one house to another. Rather than "ambush" the Senate with the implications of a new sodality - one they have given legal powers to without knowing what they are - we want to create a route toward dispelling this uncertainty. In essence, we will write the wind of fortune that we're currently writing after the sodality is created before the sodality is created. The crucial requirement here is that the six-line manifesto be submitted in its entirety, with the wording that would be used to create that sodality, so that we can give our best response to what such a group would mean for the Empire.

This also means that rather than the current situation, where we have listed changes to the manifesto that would increase or decrease the power of a sodality, we'll be able to issue that guidance in-character before the Imperial Sodality is created meaning that any changes can be made before the senate motion creating the sodality is presented.

Commonwealth universities take a role similar to that of the civil service in Commonwealth affairs - including the presentation of appraisals for discussion by the nation's generals.

Die Beurteilung Betrieb

• Professor Gelberg remains committed to working with the Patron of the Beurteilung until at least Winter 388YE

Last Spring the Senate endorsed the visiting Commonwealth academic, Professor Immanuel Gelberg. With the support of the University of Volkavaar, the professor brought a cadre of scholars, engineers, and students to the Empire to offer their services to Imperial citizens as a way to raise funds for the war against Jarm. They have established Die Beurteilung - a kind of freelance appraisal team whose services are secured through Imperial auction - and offered their expertise in a variety of situations. They are also, by all accounts, greatly enjoying the warm reception they have received and the chance to explore the Empire.

With recent events in the east, there is some discussion about whether Gelberg and his peers will return home to help against Cold Sun. When asked directly, Gelberg shrugs and opines that a handful of academics are not going to make any more difference in a war against an eternal than they would in the war against Jarm and that they serve their country best by continuing to strengthen ties and sympathy in the Empire. And by making money, of course. As such the Patron of the Beurteilung title will continue to remain available to the Empire's citizens until at least the end of the Winter Solstice 388YE.

The Sweetwater Scenario

• Eilian Sweetwater remains unaccounted for

One final matter relates to the whereabouts of beloved prognosticator and former researcher Eilian Sweetwater. He and his small team disappeared during the Grendel attack on Redoubt, which unfortunately started just as they arrived at the fallen Lighthouse at Nikephoros. There has been no concrete news about his whereabouts, although rumour has begun to spread that the eternal Khobel Tavah alluded during the Autumn parley to either having Eilian in custody, or having provided them a sanctuary, or perhaps even having consumed him and his associated, depending which version of the story one listens to. For now Gerard La Salle is obviously concerned, and interested in hearing from anyone who might have any concrete information about his whereabouts.

Further Reading

• Appraisal
• Senate motion
• Opportunity
• Imperial Master of Works
• Master of the Imperial Mint
• Patron of the Beurteilung